Shaping Alabama

Totally Worthless Guesses of Alabama 2010 Elections Results

Shaping AlabamaWell, the title pretty much says it all. Take this for what it’s worth: nothing. The following is simply my gut feeling of how the results will come in….

Governor – Ron Sparks (D) vs. Robert Bentley (R)
  • I believe Robert Bentley will hold on to this one by 4-7 points.  Ron Sparks has been showing better with each passing poll, but I think Bentley will come out with it.  Unfortunately this race has taken a turn so that voter’s seem to be asking themselves, “Which one is the least bad?”
Lieutenant Governor – Jim Folsom (D) vs. Kay Ivey (R)
  • Many believe that this is the democrat’s best hope in a state-wide race, and I happen to agree. I think Jim Folsom keep his seat as Lt. Gov. by 6-9 points.
Attorney General – James Anderson (D) vs Luther Strange (R)
  • Strange is perhaps the favorite of all the statewide candidates for Republicans this cycle. I believe Luther Strange will win by 10-13 points after he already unseated incumbent Troy King in the Republican primary.
Secretary of State – Scott Gilliland (D) vs. Beth Chapman (R)
  • I think Beth Chapman will get her second term in this position, but I think it will be by less than 10 points.
State Treasurer – Charlie Grimsley (D) vs. Young Boozer (R)
  • Despite an effective ad late in the campaign by Charlie Grimsley, I think Young Boozer will pull it off by 6-9 points due to his pedigree and memorable name.
State Auditor – Miranda Joseph (D) vs. Sam Shaw (R)
  • I think Sam Shaw will easily find a second term in this race with a margin greater than 10 points.
Supreme Court, Place 1 – Rhonda Chambers (D) vs. Kelli Wise (R)
  • I think this race will be one of the tightest of the evening, with Kelli Wise winning by 1-4 points after spending more than twice as much as Chambers.
Supreme Court, Place 2 – Tom Edwards (D) vs. Mike Bolin (R)
  • Perhaps the largest margin of victory in a statewide race, I think Mike Bolin will win by 15 points or more with more money and the pleasure of being an incumbent in a position where incumbent is not such a dirty word.
Supreme Court, Place 3 – Mac Parsons (D) vs. Tom Parker (R)
  • Incumbent Tom Parker has taken a beating in this election from his opponent and his colleagues. Mac Parsons has a real shot, and I’m calling a tie. Yep, a tie. It’s my list, I can do what I want.
PSC 1 – Jan Cook (D) vs. Twinkle Cavanaugh (R)
  • This is a tough one. The money is about the same and Twinkle has had some very close races in the past. She had the lead in the polls going into to this one, so I’ll give her the edge. Twinkle Cavanaugh by 1-4 points.
PSC 2 – Susan Parker (D) vs. Terry Dunn (R)
  • I don’t think this one will be very close. Susan Parker has massively outraised and outspent Terry Dunn. I believe she will win by high double digits.
Ag. and Industries Commissioner – Glen Zorn (D) vs. John McMillan (R)
  • Glen Zorn worked under Ron Sparks in the office already, and I believe he will defeat John McMillan by 8-11 points.
US Senate, CD-1, CD-3, CD-4, CD-6, CD-7
  • I lump these together because I don’t think any of them will be close at all. Richard Shelby will return to the U.S. Senate. I think Jo Bonner (CD-1, R) and Mike Rogers (CD-3, R) will have double digit victories and return to the house. Robert Aderholt (CD-4, R) and Spencer Bachus (CD-6, R) are both unopposed incumbents. Terri Sewell (CD-7, D) should also win by double digits to fill the seat left by Artur Davis. She may end up being the only democrat to represent the state in congress.
CD-2 – Bobby Bright (D) vs. Martha Roby (R)
  • This is by far the most interesting race in the state that has national implications. Bobby Bright is trying desperately to hold on to his seat after riding in on the democratic wave of the 2008 election. Fivethirtyeight guru Nate Silver thinks Martha Roby has got a two thirds shot to win and projects her to get almost 52% of the vote. I tend to agree, and I’m giving her the victory by less than 2 points.
CD-5 – Steve Raby (D) vs. Mo Brooks (R)
  • CD-5 is a historically blue district. Parker Griffith switched to the Republican party after he thought he saw the writing on the wall and got booted in the primary. Mo Brooks proved in that primary he is a strong candidate, but Steve Raby is no lightweight either. Polling looks good for Brooks, and if Raby pulls this off then CD-2 is a lock for Bright too. I have to go with Mo Brooks by 4-7 points.
Alabama House of Representatives
  • The House has an extremely good chance of turning red for the first time in any of our lives. The Republicans need 53 seats for a majority, but I think they may get 60 or more. There are simply too many races too cover them all, but I do have ideas on a couple.
  • I’m going out on a limb to say that I think Richard Baughn (R) will defeat Ken Guin (D) in HD-14.
  • I think Joe Hubbard (D) will be one of the sole upsets in favor of the democrats against incumbent David Grimes (R) in HD-73.
  • I think Mac Buttram (R) will defeat James Fields (D) in HD-12.
Alabama State Senate
  • The Senate is a bit more of an uphill battle for the Republicans. They need 18 seats for a majority in the 35 member senate. I believe they will get 18 or 19. I’ll dive in on a couple of races
  • I think Bill Holtzclaw (R) will defeat incumbent Tom Butler (D) in SD-2.
  • For some reason I think Ted Little (D) will hold on against challenger Tom Whatley (R).
  • I have a feeling Wallace Wyatt (D) will defeat Del Marsh (R) in SD-12.
  • I think Bryan Taylor (R) will pull off an upset on incumbent Wendell Mitchell (D) in SD-30.
  • I believe Paul Sanford (R) will keep his seat from challenger Jeff Enfinger (D) in SD-7.
  • I think Ray Robbins (R) is too little, too late against conservative democrat Jerry Fielding (D) in SD-11.
  • I think Gerald Dial (R) will defeat Greg Varner (D) in SD-13.
  • My biggest upset alert is that Shad McGill (R) will defeat Lowell Barron (D) in SD-8.

And there you have it. My totally worthless guesses for the 2010 elections in Alabama. Don’t worry, I’ll come back and shame myself if I perform horribly.


2 thoughts on “Totally Worthless Guesses of Alabama 2010 Elections Results

  1. What polling data, demographic research, past election results and other factors go into these assumptions? I have to disagree with you on a large majority of these due to the polling data I’ve seen over the past few months, current trends and past election results in these races.

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